Forecast For 12-27-2014

Well, I hope this Christmas has found everyone well as we worship Jesus Christ, the Son of God, for his first advent and look forward to his second coming.

Previous Forecast Review:
The last forecast I issued was for Christmas Eve.
It was actually kind of an interesting day. The high was 50ºF which I am pretty happy about. The lowest temperature recorded in the three day history for KTKI Christmas Eve morning was only 40ºF. But my low forecast was “saved” by the very rapid drop in temperature that night. It actually reached 32ºF just before the clock struck 12:00 AM Christmas Day (which is a temperature bust for those who wanted to save their precious and tender vegetation). Wind speeds have been very tricky. The max winds for Christmas Eve were basically in the 20kt range with higher gusts. I’ve posted the sounding from the Fort Worth WFO showing the significantly mixed boundary layer at 6:00 AM. The mixing process clearly would have to have been wind driven and not thermally driven. (As the day progressed and thermal processes became more important the boundary layer did get deeper). This well mixed layer at the surface is what allowed for some of the faster winds aloft to be transported down to the surface and busted my wind forecast. Oh well…

Back to the forecast at hand…

Forecast (12:00 AM to 11:59 PM):

High: 56ºF       Low: 35ºF       Peak Wind: 23kts        Precipitation: 0.12”

Forecast Discussion:

I’ve made the assumption that the cold front will not reach KTKI before midnight tonight (seems highly likely given its very slow progress through central Oklahoma tonight) and therefore the high will simply be whatever the temperature happens to be at midnight. For that the skies will likely remain cloudy (though the western edge of the cloud cover almost reached KTKI) and winds may increase out of the south-southeast as the front approaches. These factors should prevent the temperature from dropping significantly and thus a mid-upper 50’s seems about right. Noted that both 12z GFS and 12z NAM MOS (model statistical output) had 56ºF at midnight.

Tomorrow will be a day of steady falling temperatures, strong post frontal winds, cloudy skies, and possible precipitation. The low temperature for the 27^th will occur at 11:59 PM as continued cold air advection occurs. One of the trickiest parts of the forecast will be whether clouds and precipitation clear out in time to allow temperatures to plummet prior to midnight on the 28^th. Winds will be lighter after dark tomorrow evening, but will still be decent and keep the low level air mixed to some extent. The GFS and NAM keep clouds over the area and do not clear them out till just after the period ends. Thus, I decided to lean towards another above freezing low. If clouds clear out just one hour sooner this will bust.

Precipitation is very tricky. As one might expect with such a warm and moist pre-frontal environment upstream from an upper level vorticity maxima, isentropic assent and positive DVA will aid in destabilizing the atmosphere and could allow for showers to develop along the front. The Fort Worth WFO has gone with a 40% chance for tonight into tomorrow morning with the GFS and NAM printing out about .1” of precipitation near McKinney. In addition, assent caused by positive DVA could yield a second batch of showers as the upper-level trough axis approaches. The NAM does not indicate this second precipitation event having much of an impact on precipitation amounts, but the GFS does (though the amount is very small). 

Just a quick note, the RAP has significantly more precipitation and thus went ahead and increased the expected amount. I am not going to wait around for the 00z runs to put this out there so here it goes! 

Experimental Forecast for Christmas Eve 2014

Forecast (12:00 AM to 11:59 PM):
High: 51ºF       Low: 34ºF       Peak Wind: 15kts        Precipitation: 0”

Discussion:
With the subsidence moving in in wake of the 500 mb vorticity maxima, the atmosphere should dry out allowing for clear skies and decent solar heating. 

The trickier part of this forecast will be the rate of continuing cold air advection tonight counteracted by continuous mixing of the boundary layer and insulating clouds. I don't think it will get to 34 degrees tonight but it may very well get that cold by 12:00 AM Christmas Day due to clear skies and light winds. Tomorrow, the wet ground will play some role in counteracting the heating but it looks like there is a decent chance to break 50ºF given it stays a little warmer tonight than the NAM indicates. I will keep the peak wind at 15 kts for this period.


For grading purposes see the 3 day history from the KTKI ASOS station.
These measurements tend to differ from what gets used in the climate report but it is all I can find to go off of for now.

Looks like the high for yesterday was 54ºF, the low 44ºF (so far), the peak wind 22 kts, and the precipitation 0.47".

It will be interesting to see if the low will drop below 44ºF just before midnight tonight.
And given that precipitation is generally the most difficult thing to forecast I am pretty happy with 0.47". 

Experimental Forecast for 12-23-2014

I thought that it would be fun to try to do daily forecasts during Winter Break so that I could keep up with all that I was supposed to have learned this past semester. 

So, to begin…

Location will be Collin County Regional Airport (KTKI) because of the ASOS weather observation station located there.

Forecast (12:00 AM to 11:59 PM):
High: 53ºF       Low: 42ºF       Peak Wind: 15kts        Precipitation: 0.53”

Discussion:

Nearly stationary long wave trough situated over the Central United States should amplify over the next 24 hours and bring strong enough assent over North Central Texas for some precipitation. This will be due to cyclonic vorticity advection (CVA) into the base of the trough axis and cold air advection in the low levels across the high plains in the Surface to 700 mb layer (noted to be strongest at 850 mb). Clouds have already overspread North Texas as of 6:00 PM in association with the vorticity maxima over Colorado and the left exit region of a jet streak aloft.

Weak cold air advection at the surface will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period with winds out of the northwest. However, clouds and precipitation should keep the low from dipping into the upper 30’s early tomorrow morning. The high will be considerably lower tomorrow than it was today given the weak cold air advection and cloudy skies.

The tricky part of the forecast period will be the low temperature that could occur by midnight Christmas Eve. That is dependent on when the sky clears and how much cold air advection is still taking place (and mixing of the boundary layer due to wind). For now think that the temperature will not drop below 42ºF before the period ends.

Went with a little over a half inch of precipitation given the very crude estimations from the GFS and NAM. It would appear that the main cause of the precipitation is a maximum in differential vorticity advection (DVA) in the 700 mb – 500 mb layer that progresses across North Texas. Both models have an enhanced swath of over a half inch (though the 18z runs have backed off of this slightly) running from southwest to northeast across the region surrounding the DFW area. Not sure what kind of mesoscale feature would be associated with this other than the center of positive DVA. The rain should move out of the area by noon as the area of strongest DVA exits the region. 

July 12th 2010 Wedding Cake and Waterfall

Ok, I've finally decided to put together the chase account for July 12th 2010. This was probably the most photogenic storm I have ever scene thus far despite being a somewhat low shear HP Supercell that had some organizational issues. Given that this event was so long ago I can't remember all of the details but I'll see if I can put together what I do remember.

My understanding of severe weather was not really the best at this time, but I did know that a fairly unusual trough was to sweep through Oklahoma about the second week in July.The trough was unusual in that it was so far south into Oklahoma. Generally, if you can get cooler upper-level air along with the faster winds in the upper levels from a trough with a July surface air-mass you can get some fairly severe weather.  I do remember talking to James about a week in advance of the event, discussing the likelihood that it would be the last chaseable event for a few months, and thinking we needed to keep a watchful eye on the potential.

The trough did verify, though it was a little shallower and weaker than I would've liked... but hey! I can't complain about an Oklahoma storm chase opportunity in July.

I must lament the fact that this would've been Justin Terveen's very first storm chase had there not been miscommunication between us and him around leaving time. We did get things straightened out... once we were north of Oklahoma City... oooops. Hopefully he will forgive us... though that is not likely given the images that are to fallow.

Alright, I do need to mention somethings about the set up. I posted the 700mb to 300mb maps above. At the surface there was a cold front (or stalled front) across southern Kansas that provided the focus for some fairly intense supercells in the afternoon (at least a handful of tornadic ones in the Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri  Arkansas four corners area). Prior to this a disturbance had been setting off thunderstorms in southern and eastern Oklahoma in the morning through the early afternoon hours. We knew we at least had to get away from the subsidence and clouds behind that mess.

Prior to the chase (maybe the night before) I had picked Clinton Oklahoma as my primary target. I wish I could remember why this was. It may have been that the NAM was consistent in blowing up thunderstorms along I 40 as another disturbance (along with the main trough access) approached. It may have been in conjunction with the expectation that the surface front in Kansas would sink well into Oklahoma. But, as we headed north on I 35 to get out of the mess to the south and east it became clear that the front was not going to make it into Oklahoma... except for maybe the Woodward area and we had no real desire to go that far north from Dallas. At this time being based in Dallas Texas Clinton Oklahoma was about as far as any of us were willing to go for a chase.

Well, the front was stalled in southern Kansas as we headed into 3:00pm and (other than the supercells in the four corners area of Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arkansas) not much was going on. The storms further west in south central and southwestern Kansas looked like they were fighting a substantial cap... not that it really mattered given how far away they were from us.

We drove to Enid Oklahoma (the furthest north we had ever gone up to this time) and watched the struggle on the cold front that was too far away to chase anyway. Phooy. And when we saw the updated severe weather outlook from SPC we said another "Phooy". Junk to the southeast, now practically in Southern Arkansas, and some weak storms along the front chocking under what was probably a semi-stout cap were the only chasing options it seemed. What we really wanted were storms in West-Central Oklahoma.

I admit it. I probably prayed for storms. And there is probably some guy out there who, if he ever found out that I had, would likely want me to pay for his barn.

Well, God did give us storms and some of the most amazing I have ever seen. An outflow boundary which looked to be heading north from just south of I 40 seems to have partially been the culprit. And the rest was probably due to the main trough axis and associated lift combined with very unstable surface based air.

We headed west from Enid with heavy hearts when we noticed what we had been wanting to see all day: Towers exploding on the western horizon. Very interesting...
We charged into the Gloss Mountain area where an anti-cyclonic supercell was heading right for us. Boy were we excited.

Oh boy! oh boy! oh boy! oh boy! oh boy! 

It was beautiful and one of a very few strongly clockwise rotating storms I have ever seen.

While this storm was neat (with another anti-cyclonic cell coming quickly up on its heals) there was another Supercell to our southwest that was cyclonic, huge, and nearly stationary. Hmmmm... I really really wanted to try and make it to that cell. Unfortunately there were no roads that went directly to the storm... unless we wanted to core punch. I didn't really want to core punch too much... and James REALLY didn't want to core punch a potentially violent supercell (he was driving and it was his vehicle that would take the damage). So, we opted to make the hour long drive around to the southeast side of the storm.

I took a few more parting shots of the now shriveling anti-cyclonic storm and his little brother further west as we began the trip south and west.

While all this was going on our now good friend Ben Jacobi was in position on the monster HP supercell sitting near Putnam. He stuck with Clinton Oklahoma as a target throughout the day and it had really payed off thus far.

Here is a radar loop of the Putnam monster from about the time we arrived on it till about the time we
ended the chase. It really does not appear to have been very organized and cycles through mesocyclones fairly quickly. Even seems to make a brief transition to a bow-echo-like storm before developing a new meso. Whatever it was doing it did put on quite the show regardless, and even took out a barn (from SPC storm reports).

Boy was it a neat storm. At first the amazingness was probably only a moderate. But as it got closer the contrast increased and the mesocyclone tightnined up. Then amazingness quickly went off the charts.

Wow, things were really starting to look crazy. 

A developing microburst can be seen here.

Interesting circulation on the leading edge of the massive RFD gust front thingy. 

 Meso really began to tighten up and sometime in here Ben Jacobi met up with us for the very first time.

Somebody reported a tornado via ham radio. But it was never listed in the SPC reports. Still, it seemed possible that a funnel cloud wrapped back up in the rain. Really hard to tell though even with all the enhancements to this image.

I remember this being the first time I heard never ending thunder. That was quite an amazing sound. There were even a number of cloud to ground strikes fairly close by, though I didn't get a picture of one. They did, however, scare us further south a time or two.

Strange random microburst slams the ground just east of the mesocyclone creating this crazy image.

The amazing structure lasted for quite a while. I'm not sure how many stops we had made by this point. The storm was definitely moving south at a good 20mph now.

The last stop we made I believe was in Arapaho. The storm had begun to line out just a bit and redevelop again back to the southwest. We didn't really feel the need to stick around after such an amazing day and we still had a long drive back to Dallas Texas.

For more images from this Storm you can check out James Langford's page on Langford Photography.
A few of my images are in there as well. They probably don't look as good as some of the ones re-posted here because I messed up the color profile on most of them. Funny thing is the meso with the waterfall/microburst photo that I put on his site is probably more true to the original colors than the new updated one. Color is something I am still trying to figure out in my photography.

Well, that was an amazing day and one that has been very hard to beat. In a lot of ways it is still unmatched for photographic opportunities.

Big Hailstorm, Tornado, and D-Magazine 5-29-2012

This was the first day of a two day severe weather event that we chased.
Unlike how the next days forecast would turn out this days was actually pretty good. Primarily because the models did a fairly good job and I had actually been looking over things carefully.

Chased with Justin Terveen, James Langford and Krista Higbee. Krista came on behalf of D-Magazine which was really neat. Hopefully I didn't say anything too stupid. ;)

The day and the next would be characterized by broad upper level flow across the central U.S. While not overly powerful it seemed as if it would provide enough deep layer shear for supercell thunderstorms. Around 35kts of shear, as it turns out, certainly ended up being plenty. Instability wouldn't be a problem either as it maxed out at about 4,000 j/kg near the Wotonga/Kingfisher area.

The Actual Sounding from Oklahoma City at 7pm only indicates ~3,000 j/kg and 33kts. Mesoanalysis on the SPC site would indicate 40kts or so with nearly 4,000 j/kg. 

OKC sounding 7pm

SBCAPE 6pm

0-6km Shear 6pm

The primary focus for storms would be a frontal boundary draped across the northern portion of Oklahoma a dryline to the west and strong convergence near the center of the surface low. In addition a disturbance would be rippling through the mid-level flow providing for additional lift.

The target area was essentially Watonga to Woodward Oklahoma. An area that was fairly close to the surface low and with surface winds backed to the southeast rather than south. This would enhance the overall shear and helicity just a bit more despite the lack of low level shear. Winds up to about 3km were pretty much aligned with only a bit of speed shear. So tornadoes were not really something I was expecting.

However, supercell thunderstorms in the right environment that latch onto boundaries or experience odd interactions with nearby cells may not care that low level shear is weak. This has been a well noted fact and why many chasers want to see a supercell thunderstorm interact with some kind of boundary. It all has to do with how winds change on a boundary and how low level shear and helicity might be considerably higher in the inflow region of a storm that is interacting with a boundary.

The reason I bring this up is because the storm that impacted the Kingfisher/Piedmont area produced a tornado (more than one?) despite the lack of low level shear and helicity after colliding with the outflow from another powerful storm to its south. What an incredible meteorological phenomenon that was to watch! Both storms then quickly fell apart after ingesting each others outflow. 

We left James' house around 11:00am and headed north on I 35 while giving Krista the Severe Weather 101 lesson which is really a condensed version of a skywarn class I guess. (Shear, Instability, and Lift)

Once on I 40 we teamed up with the DOW (Doppler On Wheels)... or more like passed them. It was, however, encouraging to see them heading the same direction we were.

We arrived just north of Watonga around 3pm and waited for storms to initiate. This consisted primarily of watching puffy cumulus clouds get bigger and bigger while we were getting sunburned. Finally noted some high clouds on the horizon just after 4pm associated with a beefy area of cumulus and assumed storms were firing.

The storms were slow moving and yielded some incredible explosive updraft motions. For a time we were able to sit under the developing mesocyclone as it organized near the town of Okeene while spitting some penny to nickle sized hail at us. This storm was also the southern most cell in a line of storms and therefore had the least obstructed inflow out of all of them.

The storm passed just to the northwest of Okeene by only a few miles. Interestingly the sirens in Okeene were blowing and we never knew the reason for it. The storm was high based at the time and there was no wall cloud (though mid level rotation was quite strong). There appeared to be some smoke in the town and perhaps a fire was the cause. Also, a number of dry microbursts were noted just north of town where the RFD was likely taking shape.

We were really cut off at Okeene since the storm was moving southeast right over highway 51 and there were no decent roads to take to the southeast to stay with the storm. Core punching was not really an option for those of us who dislike being beaten with large hail. We could've stayed on dirt roads but that is always a bit risky. We decided to drop south on highway 8 and then find another eastbound option.
I believe that eastbound option was Loyal Road as it was the only paved option and I don't even believe it was paved the entire way.

Whatever the road we took it east a little ways and that is when the storm started developing wall clouds. The first few were exciting... but not terribly exciting. (Actually most wall clouds for us are terribly exciting.) But with each wall cloud the storm would cycle through they would get lower and rotation would become stronger. In fact, the rotation at several points became very pronounced and very close to the tornadic storms I could compare it to. It really makes me wonder if it would've eventually put down a tornado anyway as it continued on into deeper moisture while surface temps cooled a bit in the evening. But we will never know since the storm collision of awesomeness took place at the critical "magic hour".

The first Wall Cloud by Justin

Another Wall Cloud by Justin

Wall Cloud image by James Langford

We dropped south out of Loyal to highway 3/33 and headed east into Kingfisher. It was about at this point that the storm was producing the Softball to Grape Fruit sized hail. Certainly not a storm we wanted to be cored by. We didn't really have time to stop as we barely made it through town before the storm as it was. Inflow was very impressive as well.

 

There was another cell immediately two our south that we had noticed earlier in the day. Not entirely sure where it originated, but it was likely a left split off of some storms closer to the Red River. It shot north at a fairly high rate of speed and was essentially on a collision course with our cell. The updrafts were extremely impressive with this cell as it came towards us. The situation was somewhat problematic for us because it looked as if we would be caught between the cells as they collided. Thankfully we were able to stop on the south side of Piedmont and just watch the process unfold.

The sky was simply crazy with stuff going on. We had the original cell to the north which was sucking in the outflow from the southern cell coming north and this made for tremendous wind at our location (tremendous being 40-50mph). We didn't have a great view of the southern cell as it merged given its meso was somewhat hidden at the angle we vied it from (the tail end of the RFD region I guess). So, we were most interested in the meso to our north on the original storm.

I can't really describe it but James' and Justin's pictures do a pretty good job.

Picture from James of the mesocyclone containing the developing tornado

Picture from Justin of the mesocyclone

Panoramic Image of the Mesocyclone from James

Panoramic Image of the Mesocyclone from Justin

There were actually a few areas of strong rotation, but the main circulation that the rain was wrapping around right in front of us produced the only known tornado.

Video of the tornado by James

Photo of the Tornado by Justin

The tornado was very brief but surprising to me. I had seen the circulation wrap up earlier and thought that it was done given that it appeared to have completely occluded. But the rain thinned out for a moment and there the funnel was! Thankfully it was brief and there was very little if any damage.

Another interesting point is that as this process unfolded the storm base seems to have raised. Likely due to the updrafts being chocked to some extent and the storm weakening. But it was right at the end of that that the tornado appeared.

The above radar loop should tell the rest of the story. The cells merged and spun up then immediately collapsed after ingesting each others cold outflow. We then had to find a way to get out of Piedmont and back south as another supercell quickly blew up on the outflow boundary set down by the original storm we  were chasing.

We managed to make one stop in Union City for lighting on this new cell before having to flee to the south again. At that stop there happened to be a civil defense siren not more than 50 feet from us. A tornado warning was issued for this new storm and the siren went off. I really didn't know how load those things were until now. As it made its sweep towards us the ground actually was vibrating.

New Cell Mesocyclone by Justin

Some lightning out of the Meso by James. Possibly from a different stop. 

Another from Justin

The day ended after a quick gas up stop which was cut short thanks to the new monster storm sneaking up on us quicker than expected. Given the 75mph plus winds expected with it along with the huge hail we figured we didn't need a full tank.

We quickly got back on I 35 and took it back home to Dallas where the large complex of storms eventually had an impact later that night.

In looking back all I can say is wow. The one day that we get somebody from D-Magazine to come along is the day that the forecast actually verifies and everything down to a tornado is witnessed. Wish I could say that my great forecasting skills was to be blamed for this but it isn't really. While I might have some (that God gave me) I am not the one who controls the weather. 

Texas Dusteater 5-30-2012

Haven't taken the time to write many chase accounts this year though there have been more successful chases this year than last. There are more important things in life than spending a few hours trying to recount every last detail of a storm event. :) And there have just been so many!

I guess I'll start with the most recent chase and then work backwards if I have the time to do other chase event right ups.

 This was day two of a two day chasing marathon. God in his grace allowed us to see some amazing stuff. Just glimpses of his power and glory that he has placed in creation. It really is a wonder that things worked out so well given the difficulties that come with trying to forecast thunderstorms. Every photograph is a gift from the creator and we should be so thankful that we walked away with such awesome photographs. Many would say we should be thankful that we even walked away. ;) And I really should agree given the dangers of the road. Actually, in reality, we should be thankful for every moment of everyday as it is a gift from the creator. And we should be thankful that the storms didn't cause anymore damage than they did. Both the 29th and 30th yielded some EXTREMELY severe storms. 

While the previous day's forecast  (the 29th) was spot on with storm initiation and progression almost as expected, this days forecast (the 30th) was garbage. Part of the problem was not looking over model data before heading out. I didn't think we would actually be heading out since Justin was suffering from suspected food poisoning. He woke up and insisted that he felt alright enough to chase and so we did. But, I didn't bother looking over model data beforehand and just ran with the SPC's forecast figuring that this day would wind up much like the previous day.

The Storm Prediction Center had issued a Moderate Risk for a large portion of Oklahoma. It looked as if a cluster of supercell thunderstorms would erupt north west of Oklahoma City (much like the previous day) and then progress southeast while transitioning to a mesoscale convective system capable of producing widespread wind damage.

As we shot north on I 35 towards Oklahoma City there were a few disturbing things about my Northwest Oklahoma target:

1. The dry line was much further west than I originally thought (models had started showing that way earlier) and the cold front was stretched east to west in Northern Kansas (something else the models had certainly picked up on that morning).

2. Instability was weak and declining near my target area, but very high in the Eastern Texas Panhandle, Southwest Oklahoma, and down into Northwest Texas.

3. A very sharp boundary existed in Northwest Texas near Childress/Vernon where nearly 6,000 j/kg of CAPE had pooled along with some very strong  wind shear.

Perhaps we needed to change target areas?

However, in the past we have often come to the conclusion that one should never be quick to give up their original target area. Given that SPC kept the moderate risk over Oklahoma surely meant that at some point things were going to get interesting right?

I simply hoped that we could get storms to initiate somewhere near Nokona or Woodward Oklahoma along what seemed to be some outflow boundaries. That and that alone would likely be our only play.

Well once we got going west on I 40 out of OKC things were becoming pretty clear that we had just made a big mistake.

This outlook is only slightly different than the original. If anything it is simply bigger. The real difference was in the text. And it wasn't too terribly different.

 EARLIER THOUGHTS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF CNTRL/SRN PLAINS
 CONVECTION REMAIN.  LATEST OA FIELDS SUGGEST AIRMASS ALONG THE I-70
 CORRIDOR ACROSS KS IS DESTABILIZING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH SFC-3KM LAPSE
 RATES NOW APPROACHING DRY ADIABATIC.  FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS
 CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG NRN PLUME OF
 MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WITH TIME ONE OR
 MORE MCS-TYPE STRUCTURES SHOULD EVOLVE ACROSS NWRN KS WITH
 SUBSEQUENT SEWD MOVEMENT INTO OK EXPECTED AFTER DARK AS LLJ
 INCREASES ACROSS THIS REGION.  HAVE OPTED TO LOWER THE TORNADO PROBS
 ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK DUE TO THE EXPECTED MCS STORM MODE.

That is what the models had been showing ever since the early morning hours. Crud. Central Kansas looked like it was going to be the place and the main bulk of Oklahoma would not be seeing storms until after dark (yuck) once the storms had organized into "one or more MCS-type structures".

Well... what to do now?

Turns out that there was a sharp boundary likely set down by the previous day's MCS running from the dry line in the Eastern Texas Panhandle through Childress towards Wichita Falls. Shear was quite high down there as a fairly decent jet streak sat over the Red River valley region. The cap was not much of an issue in Texas thanks to the fact that the mid-level shortwave was pretty strong. (Or it seemed to be fairly strong and far south). Nearly 6,000 j/kg of CAPE had pooled along that outflow boundary.
This is where the show would wind up being. And I had been ignoring it all day thanks to my stubborn SPC watching and not taking the time to carefully evaluate things in Texas.

Thunderstorms quickly erupted in the Eastern Texas Panhandle down the dry line to about Childress Texas. At that point I had considered simply heading home since we were so far out of position. However, the storms in Texas were tempting and if we kept west on I 40 we would gradually approach them.

James Langford called and seemed to think we should try and make a move towards the storms in Northwest Texas near Childress. Seemed like it would be worth a shot given how far we had already come. The cell on the southern end of the line near Childress looked like it would be the most healthy given it had unobstructed inflow and did not have to deal with splitting cell collisions that cells within the line did. The general easterly motion to the storms would make things easier given how far west they were from us.

The tricky part would be how to get south to the ones near the Red River. We decided to take Highway 6 south out of Elk City Oklahoma to get into the path of the storm near Childress. Things looked promising. And then a couple of things happened with the storm of interest. It began to dive south-southeast rather than moving more east, and a new storm formed to its southeast potentially causing some inflow problems. Our new target would have to be this new cell that was now at the southern end and it was now diving south-southeast as well. The only good thing seemed to be how slow the storms were moving. 

Thankfully Justin and I were pretty relaxed today and didn't really feel the need to see anything too spectacular given how well the previous day had gone. So, the drive south was not really stressful. In fact, we were treated to some awesome looking clouds and lightning on our way south. The storms to the west had generated tons of anvil blow off that began to cover the western side of Oklahoma. In addition we came across some amazing cloud streets once we got south of Elk City. They had likely been there all day given the visible satellite presentation throughout the day. Note some mammatus in the anvil blow off from the western thunderstorms. 

In addition we encountered some high based storms in Southwest Oklahoma that were very poorly organized but produced some incredible cloud to ground lightning. We had a number of close strikes. It made the drive much more interesting. Once we got south of those storms we were treated to an incredible atmospheric display in the anvil blow off from the storms we were trying to pursue. Contrast was high and the atmosphere clear and the mammatus/virga combination was really pretty. Large positive cloud to ground strikes were randomly hitting all around us. It was very surreal. The fires that we drove past added to the affect. They were likely set off by the lightning.

The storm of interest was very near Crowell Texas once we got to the Red River which must've been around 6pm. At that time it was a gigantic supercell with a gigantic mesocyclone. The storm itself wouldn't have quite fit into Collin County! The mesocyclone itself must've been 5-6 miles across or more.

I had a difficult time picking the roads to get us in its path. There were not as many highways as I would've liked down there and we needed to be far enough ahead of the storm that we would have time to escape to the south and east if we needed to.

Wound up staying on 283 south out of Vernon Texas and then taking 277 southwest out of Symour to get us into the storms path. When we reached Goree Texas we took FM 266 about a mile or so north of town.

At this point we were in the middle of the supercells inflow jet. I thought winds were sustained at around 45-50mph with gusts to 60mph. Most other chasers figured winds of 40-50mph. Whatever the speed it was WINDY and the dust being kicked up was quite a lot. We stayed just south of some dirt fields that were kicking up the most dust in order to stay out of the mess.

The storm that came into view was not like any of the other supercells I had personally seen before. I had seen some storms in photographs that had the swirly/babarpole/striations all the way up through the anvil but never in person. Given the inflow that was kicking us all around as we tried to hold our tripods steady and the massive vortex of a storm heading right for us I'd have to say this was one of the more intimidating moments in chasing. Maybe not the most but certainly up in the top few for me.

This was the last image taken from this spot and the edge of the meso is just about to us. This was shot with a 10mm lens on James' 30d. Can't remember the number of vertically oriented shots made to stitch this but it was a number. Point being is that the storm looks a lot smaller in the picture than it really was. The top part of the photograph was practically overhead for reference. 

We made a quick retreat south on 266 to stay ahead of the storm. Goree was blowing the sirens as there was a tornado warning in progress. Softball sized hail had also been reported.

Once we got south of town we played leapfrog with the College of DuPage storm research team. The dust eating storm began to weaken towards 8:00pm which caused it to stop dropping south and it moved more east again. We had an incredible view now that we were well ahead of it. Here the meso and mammatus swirling around it can be seen.

What an awesome sky. I don't think words or even photo's quite do it justice. 

We did shoot lightning later though I haven't processed those shots yet. I might add them to this set later.

We headed home on 380 with wind and heavy thunderstorms to keep the drive home interesting. White knuckle drives are always better for keeping one awake. Easy for me to say of course given that I wasn't driving.

Speaking of which, thanks Justin for driving and taking us all over the place. And thanks James for the advice and the use of your Canon 30D which, by the way, is the only reason I have ANY pictures from this day.

Justin has an awesome set of images on his Flickr page if you are interested in checking his stuff out.