Storm Potential on Friday... NEED MORE CAPE!!

Frontal position: Good

Surface winds backed out of southeast: Check

Shear vectors running perpendicular (mostely) to the boundary: Check

Shear in the 45 - 50+kt range: Check

Event in chase-able territory: Check

Instability: ummm... errr... maybe 500j/kg? Yuck!

00z Run of the NAM: CAPE for 21z Friday

00z Run of the GFS: CAPE for 21z Friday

There appears to be a lack of steep laps rates between the 700 and 500mb levels that is taking a large chunk out of any potential instability. 

What does SPC have to say about this?

SOME CONCERN EXISTS THAT A NARROW PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF BOUNDARY

LAYER BASED CAPE...POSSIBLY AS LARGE AS 500 J/KG...COULD DEVELOP

ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA...PERHAPS PARTS OF ADJACENT

NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND

SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON FRIDAY.  IF THIS OCCURS...THERE MAY BECOME A

WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN

THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. 

HOWEVER...GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED WEAKNESS OF THE SURFACE WAVE...AND

THE MODEL VARIABILITY WITH THE SUPPORTING MID-LEVEL IMPULSE...SEVERE

POTENTIAL STILL SEEMS TOO LOW FOR EVEN 5 PERCENT PROBABILITIES AT

THE PRESENT TIME.

Of course I won't be chasing this event despite how close it is due 

to other commitments (unless it is right over my house or something). 

But those of you who are hoping for that 500j/kg or more of CAPE 

I wish you the best of luck. I'll still be keeping an eye on things.