From the National Weather Service in Ft. Worth:
SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE BIG BEND REGION AND
WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EAST AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LOW. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE AND
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE
SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO POUR SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THERE APPEARS TO BE
A PERIOD OF TWO OR THREE HOURS WHERE SOME MODERATE FREEZING RAIN
COULD OCCUR...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES FROM NEAR
GRAHAM TO BOWIE. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE 00Z NAM
AND 02Z RUC INDICATE THAT THE 1000-850MB LAYER WILL COOL QUICKLY
TO BELOW FREEZING SOMETIME AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER A STOUT WARM
NOSE WILL PERSIST AROUND 800MB INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY. THE LATEST RUC ALSO INDICATES AS MUCH AS 350J/KG OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ATOP THE COLD AIR. THIS PROFILE SUGGESTS THAT
SOME IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE SLEET SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CANT RULE OUT THUNDER SLEET
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS WELL. THERMAL PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE
LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC ZONE AND
POTENTIAL FOR BANDED PRECIP TO SET UP.
GIVEN THE LATEST DATA...WILL LEAVE THE WARNINGS IN EFFECT AS
IS...BUT CHANGE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE TO SLEET AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE THE PURE
SNOW CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES AND RED RIVER COUNTIES
THROUGH MORNING. LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY...WE COULD SEE ALL
SNOW OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT PRECIP SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN.
IN ADDITION...WILL BUMP UP ACCUMULATIONS IN THE METROPLEX TO 2 TO
3 INCHES...MAINLY SLEET ACCUMULATION.
Although many things are still uncertain at this point it appears that this storm has the potential
to be one of the more significant winter storms I have experienced.On top of that temperatures next week
are expected to be the coldest I have ever experienced in Texas.The Low temperature Thursday
morning is expected to be right around 10 degrees... a very impressive hard freeze!
(At least by my standards).
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