The Stench of the Early Season Setup

Well, Sunday looks to have what would be a great set up across the Red River on northward except for the stinking strong cap in place (made worse by the unbroken stratus deck forecasted by the NAM) and low cape. I mean there appears to be hope... and yet not.
The model does indicate some lifting of the cap towards evening and some decent lift along the dry line (especially near the Red River).

But the NAM fails to initialize thunderstorms except for in far eastern Oklahoma a little later in the evening.
By 6pm in the Ardmore Oklahoma region this is what the 00z NAM gives for a sounding...

Part of the problem is all the warm air advection stratus around 925mbs. It has pretty much prevented any significant warming from taking place.
This system still does bear watching however... especially if any clearing takes place along I 35.

The really bad news about this set up is the nocturnal tornado outbreak potential across Arkansas. The moderate risk area does not appear to be tapped into until after midnight making for a pretty nasty situation.