Just check out this hodograph from the NAM!
The NAM indicates an uncaped invironment around 6 pm with fairly high cape values for such a low concentration of low level moisture.
Obviously we will need to keep a close eye on this set up in case the models are under forecasting the moisture return.
Here is the 18z NAM sounding near Wichita Falls for 00z Saturday (Friday Evening) showing low moisture, but extremely steep laps rates... enough to perhaps initialize convection without the high moisture content. This would probably make for a good lightning display.
Y'know Zack. The models have been doing this lately. Showing a nice set up for our area and the day before the shove that cold front/dryline really far east (usually past I-35). I'm worried if we're gonna get the moisture return we need. Anything to get us out of this drought. Oh well. Who knows? Maybe we'll see some active weather soon.
ReplyDeleteThis event went caput in a hurry. I think the day after I posted this the models had a completely different solution and they stuck with it until the end.
ReplyDeleteWe still chased in Southeast Oklahoma expecting to at least see a thunderstorm and get some lightning, but we didn't even see much of a rain shower!
Not sure what this next system will bring but probably won't post much on it since I cannot chase no matter the outcome.