Active Pattern Next Week

Well despite just having gone on a chase it looks like there maybe another opportunity coming up on Monday, and then perhaps another towards next weekend.

Right now it appears that a strong trough cuts off at 500mb and slowly drifts east, providing an opportunity for storms on Monday... and then perhaps later in the week as it lifts back out into the main Jet Stream.

At the surface it looks like plenty of moisture will advect north out of the gulf without much problem in time for Monday's event. Flow looks to be nicely backed out of the east-southeast near Childress Texas.

The main concerns right now appear to be the ridiculous cap forecasted to be in place and the weak flow at 500mb. It looks to me that the ECMWF might have some faster flow near 500mb given the way its hight lines are spaced and the position of the trough. But I don't really know how it is distributing that flow around. As for the cap, if there is too much cloud cover on Monday from all the moist air advection than it is likely the surface heating that would be needed to help erode the cap will not take place.

There might be some opportunity for chasing on Tuesday, but with a cold front pressing south into the Metroplex it looks like the mode of storms wouldn't be too favorable for chasing.

The next opportunity after Tuesday looks to be around Friday or Saturday of next week, and right now looks to me like it holds more potential (given the current GFS forecast). But things can and will probably change as the week goes by. At least it looks like the models want to keep strong troughs in the west for the foreseeable future which would keep us in the active weather as long as they keep lifting out over the southern plains.