Well, it has been decided and we are going to head out around 1:00 - 1:30pm. Hoping to be up northwest of Wichita Falls by late afternoon/early evening for a potential round of Supercells.
The big issue will be clearing out all the rain and storms up in that area to allow for some surface heating in the afternoon as the dry line tries (kind of sort of) to make a push to the east from around Childress - Texas Panhandle/Oklahoma boarder. Right now the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model indicates storms will still be in that area in the mid morning hours (yuck) but with all the convection dissipating and trying to push out of the area towards the northeast. Really looks like the vast majority of Oklahoma will remain too wet and cloudy to build up enough instability for any major outbreak of severe storms as all this "junkvection" overspreads Oklahoma throughout the day. But, the southwest corner of Oklahoma/northwest Texas looks promising if it clears out.
The latest run of the NAM (00z) shows the highest CAPE up there that I have seen forecasted thus far with values approximately 2,000... little less... but close.
Forecast Sounding from Vernon Texas at 00z.
The one thing that we will have plenty of is shear. It looks like there will be at least 45 - 50kts of 0-6km shear... which is very good and low level helecity could support the development of a tornado or two as long as there is some surface based instability for storms to work with.
All in all, I think we will have a good time... provided expectations aren't too high ;)
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