Sunday and Monday Thunderstorm outlook.

So, it has been a long while since we have had a shot at some good non-airmass thunderstorms and looks like a chance is coming up this weekend. Unlike the past several months we will actually have a very deep trough swing through Oklahoma and Texas! However what we don't lack in upper level support we might actually lack at the surface: Good moisture return from the gulf and decent surface heating. Another problem for those of us who like to chase these things is that any storms that form will likely blow through in the morning hours (one main disturbance Monday morning and the other Tuesday morning).

Here is the 12z GFS at 500mb Sunday evening.


Same model and run for Monday evening...


Here is what the NAM shows at 500mb for Sunday evening... and for Monday Evening.


Here is what the GFS says about surface Dew Points for Sunday Evening and Monday Evening.


The NAM for Sunday Evening and Monday Evening.


The GFS is definetely more aggressive with the moisture flow out of the gulf. The good news is that the NAM has been increasing the moisture over North Texas over the past few runs. The 00z run has not finished but it is bringing Dew Points up into the mid 60's.


This is what the ECMWF shows for early Monday morning. Looks like it has a surface boundary sitting just west of the Metroplex, and it does not push that boundary through the area until early Tuesday.

I did find it interesting that SPC does have a "See Text" area on their day three convective outlook for Sunday. From what the models show if anything happened it would be way to the west and probably wouldn't initiate until after dark.


There has been some discussion on what could happen Monday afternoon after the first disturbance blows through. If the atmosphere can destabilize enough (if given enough moisture and some breaks in the clouds) then something interesting could happen.

Shear would be another tricky thing to forecast in this situation. There is not a very strong jet streak with this trough. And where the faster flow aloft will actually set up who knows.

Again something to keep an eye on. I would like to be able to get some lightning photographs if one of these disturbances will actually develop decent enough storms.