Looks like if there is a chase opportunity it will be more towards Friday or Saturday rather than Monday. The models (the NAM and GFS) have come in with less moisture return than what was being shown by the GFS on Thursday. NAM is the driest with Dew Points mixing out at the surface down into the mid 50's and while the GFS fails to bring 60 Dew Points to the Red River until Midnight Tuesday morning. CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) has gone down on the GFS while CIN (Convective INhibition) has gone up and shear has not changed much with each run of the models with the NAM indicating the less shear over North West Texas/West Oklahoma. Given these factors it looks like I won't be heading out to chase on Monday unless the models come up with a drastically different solution. There still might be some opportunity for lightning as the front moves in early Tuesday morning.
Surface Dew Points from 18z run of GFS for 7pm Monday.
Surface Dew Points from 18z run of NAM for 7pm Monday.
500mb Level and Wind Speed from 18z Run of GFS for 7pm Monday.
500mb Level and Wind Speed from 18z Run of NAM for 7pm Monday.
My attention is still drawn towards the weekend when the closed low begins to open up and lift out over North Texas/West Oklahoma. The ECMWF and GFS both want to dig yet another trough in behind this one keeping us under the gun as these systems lift out over the southern plains through the start of next week. I figure with as much southerly flow expected the later part of next week into the week after that at least one of these systems will have good moisture to work with.
Good write up Zack. My eye is on Friday (mainly because I have that day off) hope to see you out there.
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