The Stench of the Early Season Setup

Well, Sunday looks to have what would be a great set up across the Red River on northward except for the stinking strong cap in place (made worse by the unbroken stratus deck forecasted by the NAM) and low cape. I mean there appears to be hope... and yet not.
The model does indicate some lifting of the cap towards evening and some decent lift along the dry line (especially near the Red River).

But the NAM fails to initialize thunderstorms except for in far eastern Oklahoma a little later in the evening.
By 6pm in the Ardmore Oklahoma region this is what the 00z NAM gives for a sounding...

Part of the problem is all the warm air advection stratus around 925mbs. It has pretty much prevented any significant warming from taking place.
This system still does bear watching however... especially if any clearing takes place along I 35.

The really bad news about this set up is the nocturnal tornado outbreak potential across Arkansas. The moderate risk area does not appear to be tapped into until after midnight making for a pretty nasty situation.

Active Active Active I hope...

While not I am not too excited about Thursday's event due to not being able to chase it and it being in the woods of northeast Texas, I am at least pleased to see that the models want to keep the pattern active. The GFS shows a system coming through Sunday/Monday-ish and another perhaps a week later.

The ECMWF:

Any way... it sure looks like the spring storm season is trying to get going and perhaps one of these events will yield some awesome chasing potential.

First Severe Threat of the 2011 Season for Texas

Looks like there will be somewhat of a severe threat in northeast Texas on Thursday.
At least it is the first chance of Thunderstorms for the DFW area in about a month or more.

Well for starters I am not sure how excited I can get. If I look at the 18z NAM for 21z Thursday I get this for CAPE:

Pretty downright awful. And I think part of the problem is its belief that thunderstorms will have already been initiated along the dryline... therefore preventing any further destableization for the afternoon.

The moisture out ahead of the dryline doesn't look bad at least. Especially since it is still February and it takes some work to get 60 dps in February. 

Shear doesn't look bad as well. About 50 - 60kts from 1000 - 5000mb.

The GFS basically looks the same but with a more aggressive push to the dryline into East Texas.

One other thing I forgot to mention is that the 12z run of the NAM was faster and more in line with the GFS. We will just have to see if the models are on a slowing trend. 

This basically reminds me right now of what happened with the first chase of last year. Storms fired east of I 35 and became severe well into northeast Texas and we never caught them due to there quick speeds.

If anyone is going to get pounded on Thursday it will probably be in Arkansas where the instability is greater due to 60 dps and colder temperatures aloft combined with stronger upper-level support. (Not to mention the much more favorably backed surface winds allowing for stronger low-level rotation.)

Thundersleet aftermath 2/1/2011

 This is one of those events that makes me glad I live in Texas. The continuously changing weather and forecast challenges are fun... at least to one who doesn't have to go driving out in the ice and doesn't have the pressure of a community demanding a decent forecast (and yes other states probably have greater extremes than we do here in Texas). To me it is always neat to see the variation God put into the weather and how he moves air masses however he wants to. I have said it once before, but I will say it again:
I hope that I never forget the majesty of my God and the wonder at all he has created. It is times like these that should remind us who is really master of creation.

When I got up this morning the temperature was around 16 degrees. Currently (as of 3pm) the temperature is just under 18 degrees.
Cold air seems to have filtered in a little faster than forecasted and the winter storm warning was extended further east.
During the night there were periods of very heavy sleet and occasional lightning. Some of the pellets looked like they were about a quarter of an inch across.
Ice totals seems to be about an inch deep across the yard and street with drifts over twice that in a few places.
We have also had snow flurries that are just now tapering off. It seems to be originating from clouds that are very low or near the surface and probably less than a thousand feet thick.

Water flowing under an inch of ice.

My very cold siblings.

About an inch to an inch and a half of ice on the sidewalk. 

Thought the fog on the lens when I brought the camera in from the outside made for some interesting atmospheric effects.

It always amazes me when I see the number of people that still drive out on the ice. There were at least a couple people that managed to get off to work. And there have been a few people on the Plano repeater calling in as "mobile". The mail man got stuck in our neighborhood after getting too close to the curb where water was flowing just under about a half-inch to an inch of slick ice. Thankfully he managed to get out with the help of a tow truck.

All in all it was quite an eventful winter storm.