Wait... is it March or July?

Take a look at these convective outlooks from the Storm Prediction Center.
Day 1

Day 2

Day 3

Hey, now thats more like it...

Except the main action is still expected to be way north.
Day 4

These outlooks look to me like they belong to either June or July... not March! How dare the central plains get their severe weather before us down here in the south! Oh well. I guess I should blame La Nina like everyone else. Still that is pretty strange to me. Hopefully the drought across Texas can get some relief.

3/21 falls apart.

Looks like the whole thing has pretty much gone ka-poot!

Cap looks like it will be too strong, and the system is too far north in Kansas.
The models have consistently been shifting this thing north with the past few runs.

Any way, the only real chance at storms appears to be Wednesday evening. But, flow looks like it could be a little too veered along the front for decent convergence along it.

Potential Storm Chase 3/20 - 3/21

It looks like there will be a decent opportunity for supercells in far West Oklahoma and Texas panhandle Sunday through Monday. SPC has already outlined an area Saturday through Sunday.

I am actually most interested in Monday since chasing that day will be easier and it appears that it could have the most potential.

The ECMWF shows a nice surface low sitting over Southwest Kansas on Monday with a dry line extending south through the Texas panhandle. I can't tell how the wind vectors at the surface are aligned, but I have some hope that winds are not terribly veered along the dry line.

The GFS tells a slightly different story with a much weaker surface low and the main trough holding back further west. At least the moisture return is not expected to be the main problem.

The trough can be seen here further west and most of the disturbances well west and north of the target area. This might imply an even later set up... perhaps Tuesday, or even later. It also would likely mean that the best target would actually be in southern Kansas closer to the warm front and dry line bulge that can be seen on the dew point map.

CAPE is not overly impressive ether... but as some have pointed out the models have often underforecasted the CAPE. I won't bother to show it but there is also a pretty stout cap in place and it will be very hard to overcome that without some kind of upper level disturbance.

At least it is again something to keep a close eye on. All we really need is more instability... especially less CIN. Shear profiles look more than adequate for supercells.

Significant Severe Weather 3/8/11 But NO Chase for Me

I was not able to chase but James Langford managed to get out and capture some cool images which can be seen here.
The first half of his time laps video is of the storm that produced baseball sized hail and eventually tornadoes along highway 82 east of 75. Underneath the storm base you can see a fairly ominous lowering which is believed to be a significant wall cloud.
The rest of his video is of a lesser cell that may have produced severe weather near Greenville and Sulphur Springs.

A few other chasers managed to core punch the HP beast near Paris Texas and capture images of a tornado. (Not sure if it is one of the tornadoes or THE tornado the storm produced.)

The images from their encounter can be seen here.

Chase Possible 3/4/11

This set up has really caught my eye given its location and very favorable wind profile.
Just check out this hodograph from the NAM!

The biggest issue I see right now is the lack of moisture in Northwest Texas indicated by both the NAM and GFS.

  

The NAM indicates an uncaped invironment around 6 pm with fairly high cape values for such a low concentration of low level moisture. 

Obviously we will need to keep a close eye on this set up in case the models are under forecasting the moisture return.

Here is the 18z NAM sounding near Wichita Falls for 00z Saturday (Friday Evening) showing low moisture, but extremely steep laps rates... enough to perhaps initialize convection without the high moisture content. This would probably make for a good lightning display.